Survey-based consumer confidence indicators are mostly reported with adelay and are a result of time consuming and expensive consumer surveys.In this study, to measure the current consumer confidence in Germany, wedevelop an approach, in which we compute the consumer sentiment...

In household panels, typically all household members are surveyed. Because household composition changes over time, so-called following rules are implemented to decide whether to continue surveying household members who leave the household (e.g. former spouses/partners, grown children) in...

In household panels, typically all household members are surveyed. Because household composition changes over time, so-called following rules are implemented to decide whether to continue surveying household members who leave the household (e.g. former spouses/partners, grown children) in...

As one of the main pillars of the ifo Institute's economic research, the ifo Business Survey has been conducted monthly since 1949, a year after the foundation of the ifo Institute. Since then, ifo has extended its survey activity by developing and administering additional business, expert, and...

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other...

The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single...