We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

markets and inflation is analyzed. The results of Granger-causality tests reveal that stock market has no predictive power … volatility for inflation uncertainty, et vice versa. Regarding the subsequent volatility of short-term and of long-term interest … rate. In contrast, inflation uncertainty provides some information. The hypothesis of a causality running from the …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest …