scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly … been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation … future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission …'s Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts conducted by the London-based institute Consensus Economics. The …

well as our broader (policy) attitudes and values. We fielded large online survey experiments in Italy, Spain, Germany and … intentions, policies & taxation, and identity & values. With a randomised survey ow we vary whether respondents are given COVID … social welfare spending financed by taxes. This is largely due to economic insecurity, but also because of health concerns. A …

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future … money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis - inflation as a proxy for … aggregate risk aversion - is not supported by the data. -- Inflation expectations ; money illusion ; proxy hypothesis ; stock …

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome … illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. …