Showing 1 - 10 of 8,599
This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491104
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and … studies for West Germany and Germany, respectively. The authors find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output … is robustly estimated and can therefore be restricted to one. The elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744528
In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment … compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany …. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348710
In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European … outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe … the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361708
In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European … outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe … the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011387721
We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149544
This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831959
Das MOGBOT ist ein ökonometrisches Modell für die Zweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft nach der Gliederung A*10 der Klassifikation WZ 2008 (ergänzt durch das Verarbeitende Gewerbe, Abschnitt C), die den Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen nach der Generalrevision 2011 zugrunde...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530231
Information about special events can improve economic forecasts substantially. However, due to the lack of timely quantitative data about these events, it has been difficult for professional forecasters to utilise such information in their forecasts. This paper investigates whether Internet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009673348