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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014

This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany ; conference paper

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2014

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491104

Forecasting employment for Germany

Hinz, Darius; Logeay, Camille - 2006 - First Version: November 2004, This version: January 9, 2006

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and … studies for West Germany and Germany, respectively. The authors find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output … is robustly estimated and can therefore be restricted to one. The elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744528

Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals : What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?

Kilian, Lutz - 1998

Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite evidence of severe size distortions. This paper introduces a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this bootstrap test has much smaller size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014072162

New neural network methods for forecasting regional employment : an analysis of German labour markets

Patuelli, Roberto; Reggiani, Aura; Nijkamp, Peter; … - 2006

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment … compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany …. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348710

New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment : An Analysis of German Labour Markets

Patuelli, Roberto - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012717667

Forecasting industrial production in Germany : the predictive power of leading indicators

Schlösser, Alexander - 2020

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149544

Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle : a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland

Iselin, David; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2013

constructed for Germany and Switzerland. We use these indices in order to track the business cycle dynamics in these two countries … Switzerland. Third, we show that the RWI-based forecasts are more accurate than the consensus forecasts (published by Consensus … Economics Inc.) for Switzerland, whereas we reach the opposite conclusion for Germany. In fact, the accuracy of the consensus …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009757256

Estimating and Predicting Multivariate Volatility Thresholds in Global Stock Markets

Audrino, Francesco; Trojani, Fabio - 2003

This paper proposes a double tree structured AR-GARCH model for the analysis of stock index return series, which extends previous approaches to incorporate (i) an arbitrary number of multivariate thresholds in conditional means and volatilities of stock index returns and (ii) a richer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089647

Information or Institution? On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy

Döhrn, Roland - 2010

The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136127