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This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained …
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Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in- ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires...
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