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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations

Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018

taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides … usually yield different results and the official GDP release is somewhere in between. We make use of this statistical … procedure by separately modeling the two sides of GDP in a system of bridge equations at the most disaggregate level available …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715

Entrepreneurship and the business cycle : nascent entrepreneurship can have some predictive power over the business cycle

Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2014

Entrepreneurship has a cyclical component, raising two questions. Is the entrepreneurship cycle related to the business cycle? And is there causality? A twoway relationship between entrepreneurship and the business cycle would be in line with the two faces of entrepreneurs: as agents of change...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421978

Extensive versus intensive margin over the business cycle : new evidence for Germany and the United States

Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Nüß, Patrick - 2016

This article analyses the relevance of the extensive and the intensive margin of labour adjustment over the business cycle in Germany and in the United States. Previous research has found that, firstly, the extensive margin dominates and that, secondly, the relative relevance of the two margins...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433362

Business cycles, unemployment and entrepreneurial entry : evidence from Germany

Fritsch, Michael; Kritikos, Alexander; Pijnenburg, Katharina - 2013

We investigate whether people are more willing to become self-employed during boom periods or during recessions and to what extent business cycles or unemployment levels influence entries into entrepreneurship. Our analysis for Germany reveals that there is a positive relationship between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229512

Kaiser, Ulrich; Voß, Katrin - 1999

In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442943

History dependence in wages and cyclical selection : evidence from Germany

Bauer, Anja; Lochner, Benjamin - 2016

Using administrative data from Germany, this paper analyzes the relation between wages and past and current labor market conditions. Specifically, it explores whether the data is more consistent with implicit contract models (Beaudry/DiNardo, 1991) or a matching model with on-the-job search and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544266

Grown-up business cycles

Pugsley, Benjamin; Şahin, Ayşegül - 2014

We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for aggregate employment dynamics. The first observation is the steady decline in the firm entry rate over the last thirty years, and the second is the gradual shift of employment from younger to older firms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459706

Real wages and business cycle asymmetries : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003

Woitek, Ulrich - 2004

The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261

Business cycle volatility in Germany

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475861

Income inequality in Germany temporarily sinks during crises

Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Kriwoluzky, Alexander - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 46, pp. 349-355

This study is the first to investigate the interdependence of income inequality and business cycles in Germany over the past 40 years. These fluctuations in income inequality are important because they are decisive for designing effective and targeted structural redistributive and stabilization...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012704816

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