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Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors : a panel VAR approach
Dées, Stéphane; Güntner, Jochen - 2014
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411883
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Konjunkturprognosen: Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler
Grömling, Michael - 2005
The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
Giesen, Sebastian; Holtemöller, Oliver; Scharff, Juliane; … - 2010
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271586
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Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production
Rietzler, Katja; Stephan, Sabine - 2012
In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460518
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Monthly recession predictions in real time : a density forecast approach for German industrial production
Rietzler, Katja; Stephan, Sabine - 2012
In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616512
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Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? : German evidence
Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2017
-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations
Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
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Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Information – A Cross-Country Study of Inflation Dynamics
Bredemeier, Christian; Goecke, Henry - 2011
This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models' abilities to match empirical second moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274449
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Sticky prices vs. sticky information : a cross-country study of inflation dynamics
Bredemeier, Christian; Goecke, Henry - 2011
This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models‘ abilities to match empirical second moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124276
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The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy
Gerberding, Christina - 2001
expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short … expectations formation indicates that the expectations of the households and experts surveyed are strongly guided by earlier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295707