This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

aggregate inflation and the higher-order moments of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical findings confirm … explanatory variable for the inflation rate. Further, the skewness measure also helps to explain shifts in the Phillips curve …

. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation …