Das Themenspektrum der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung ist breit gefächert. Nicht nur die Wirtschaftstheorie, sondern auch die Ökonometrie und Wirtschaftsstatistik spielen eine zentrale Rolle. Die Festschrift für Professor Ullrich Heilemann versammelt dazu 30 Fachaufsätze anerkannter...

Results from business tendency surveys are often used to construct leading indicators. The indicators are then, for example, employed to forecast GDP growth. In this article more detailed results of business tendency surveys are used to forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. The target series...

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently...

Different studies provide a surprisingly large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study, we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions...