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Forecasting private consumption by consumer surveys
Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin - 2010
Survey-based indicators such as the consumer confidence are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity, especially for the future path of private consumption. Although they receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power appears to be very limited. Therefore, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285747
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Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations
Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides usually yield different results and the official GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
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Wie stark wird der Konsum vom Vermögen bestimmt?
Dreger, Christian; Slacalek, Jiri - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 76 (2007) 4, pp. 77-84
Im Euroraum und insbesondere in Deutschland hat sich die Konjunktur lange Zeit nur schwach entwickelt. Ein wesentlicher Grund dafür war nur eine verhaltene Dynamik der Binnennachfrage und insbesondere des Konsums. Im Durchschnitt unterschiedlicher Länder ist ein deutlicher Einfluss der...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377811
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Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle: A comparative study for Germany and Switzerland
Iselin, David; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2013
On the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles several versions of the Recession-word Index (RWI) are constructed for Germany and Switzerland. We use these indices in order to track the business cycle dynamics in these two countries. Our main findings are the following. First, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010319719
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Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle : a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland
Iselin, David; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2013
On the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles several versions of the Recession-word Index (RWI) are constructed for Germany and Switzerland. We use these indices in order to track the business cycle dynamics in these two countries. Our main findings are the following. First, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009757256
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Data revisions to German national accounts : are initial releases good nowcasts?
Strohsal, Till; Wolf, Elias - 2019
Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034636
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Nowcasting East German GDP growth : a MIDAS approach
Claudio, João Carlos; Heinisch, Katja; Holtemöller, Oliver - 2019
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146339
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Forecasting economic activity using a neural network in uncertain times : Monte Carlo evidence and application to the German GDP
Holtemöller, Oliver; Kozyrev, Boris - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - 2024
In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496850
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The Toll Index: Innovation-based Economic Telemetry
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011
present the basic idea and document the power of the indicator for the purpose of nowcasting. The data will be regularly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331382
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Nowcasting des deutschen BIP
Doll, Jens; Rosenthal, Beatrice; Volkenand, Jonas; … - 2017
sogenannten "Nowcasting"-Modellen, deren Prognosegüte mit jedem neu verfügbaren, das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt beeinflussenden …-up-Modellierung Nowcasting-Prognosen für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ermöglicht. Hierbei bringt es mit der verwendeten Kombination von … Modellen einen neuen Ansatz in die aktuelle Literatur des Nowcasting für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ein. Durch die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011643852