Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid …-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since … statistical inference for volatility processes critically depends on the specification of the conditional mean we assume for our …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higherorder risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …

Uncertainty shocks are found to adversely affect labor market outcomes. Most studies attribute labor adjustments costs … for the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labor market. Given that large establishments in Germany face … effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector …

Uncertainty shocks are found to adversely affect labor market outcomes. Most studies attribute labor adjustments costs … for the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labor market. Given that large establishments in Germany face … effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector …

The Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycle model is developed, where agents face uncertainty regarding the timing …

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …