Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid …-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since … statistical inference for volatility processes critically depends on the specification of the conditional mean we assume for our …

1989-2003. We identify the currency components of the mean and the volatility processes of exchange rates using the recent …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higherorder risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications …

sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly … sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of …

-sectional firm dynamics ; lumpy investment ; countercyclical risk ; aggregate shocks ; idiosyncratic shocks ; heterogeneous firms …

-varying uncertainty, highlighted in the literature. -- Ss model ; RBC model ; lumpy investment ; countercyclical risk ; aggregate shocks …Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this … adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty correspond naturally to cyclical changes in the cross-sectional dispersion of …

; countercyclical risk ; aggregate shocks ; idiosyncratic shocks ; heterogeneous firms ; news shocks ; uncertainty shocks. …Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this … adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty correspond naturally to cyclical changes in the cross-sectional dispersion of …

; cross-sectional firm dynamics ; lumpy investment ; countercyclical risk ; aggregate shocks ; idiosyncratic shocks …

Uncertainty shocks are found to adversely affect labor market outcomes. Most studies attribute labor adjustments costs … for the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labor market. Given that large establishments in Germany face … effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector …