Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major...

1 Introduction and Outline -- Part I: Internal Migration and the Labor Market -- 2 Panel VAR for Internal Migration Modelling -- 3 Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model -- 4 Space-Time Dependence in Migration Flows -- Part II: Trade and FDI Activity -- 5 Trade-FDI Linkages -- 6 Estimating...

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...

The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...