Integrated Volatility -- Zero-inflated Data Generation Processes -- Algorithmic Text Forecasting. …-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring … system, using first, a sequence of competing estimators to compute the unobservable volatility; second, a new two …

combined with the theory shed light on a risk-based explanation for the observed predictability. A preliminary test of this …