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Unoberserved components models for quarterly German GDP
Flaig, Gebhard - 2002
In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409368
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Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy
Flaig, Gebhard; Ploetscher, Claudia - 2000
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order … ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781503
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Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition
Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512
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Supply potential and output gaps in Western German manufacturing
Funke, Michael - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000912557
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Supply potential and output gaps in Western German manufacturing
Funke, Michael - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000915019
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Supply potential and output gaps in Western German manufacturing
Funke, Michael - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000151431
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The impact of macroeconomic factors on the German stock market : evidence for the crisis, pre- and post-crisis periods
Celebi, Kaan; Hönig, Michaela - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 7 (2019) 2/18, pp. 1-13
Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039605
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Was kostet die Krise? : Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010-2014
Buchen, Teresa; Carstensen, Kai; Henzel, Steffen; … - 2010
2009 ist eine Diskussion darüber entbrannt, inwieweit die derzeitige Finanzkrise Einfluss auf die mittelfristigen … ist. Dazu wird das Produktionspotenzial im Rahmen einer Wachstumsbilanzierung unter Zuhilfenahme von strukturellen … Zeitreihenmodellen abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials aufgrund der Finanzkrise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952103
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German states
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2022
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2020, thereby improving the regional database in Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173579
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German States : new data for business cycle analyses and long-run dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013549105