Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2019, we analyse whether cross-sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in-sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...

The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...

The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...

Since its introduction by Chari et al. (2007), Business Cycle Accounting (BCA) exercises have become widespread. Much attention has been devoted to the results of such exercises and to methodological departures from the baseline methodology. Little attention has been paid to identification...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird von der krisenhaften Zuspitzung auf den Gasmärkten schwer belastet. Die hochgeschnellten Gaspreise erhöhen die Energiekosten drastisch und gehen mit einem massiven gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kaufkraftentzug einher. Dies dämpft nicht nur die noch unvollständige...

The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it...

The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...

This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft steuert durch schwieriges Fahrwasser. Die Auftriebskräfte durch den Wegfall der Pandemiebeschränkungen, die Nachwehen der Coronakrise und die Schockwellen durch den Krieg in der Ukraine sorgen für gegenläufige konjunkturelle Strömungen. Allen Einflüssen gemeinsam...