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-frequency case. Having an application of macroeconomic forecasting in mind, one inevitably has to deal with variables sampled at … forecasting. However, the presented MF-BC-VAR model provides competitive results within the baseline evaluation, but suffers in a …
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We present the estimated large-scale three-region DSGE model GEAR picturing Germany, the Euro Area and the Rest of the world. Compared to existing models of this type, GEAR incorporates a comprehensive fiscal block, involuntary unemployment and a complex international structure. We use the model...
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multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
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forecasting ability of the spread. Klassifikation: …
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728591
We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To this end, we use forecasts of four leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2016. We reject the strong form of forecasts efficiency and...
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