Showing 1 - 10 of 25,975
We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010358150
We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615143
Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008807367
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
Long-term forecasts are of key importance for the car industry due to the lengthy period of time required for the development and production processes. With this in mind, this paper proposes new multivariate models to forecast monthly car sales data using economic variables and Google online...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015773
Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014167877
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011685344
-term contracts. On the other hand, recent focus is on whether long memory can affect the measurement of market risk in the context of … Value-at- Risk (V aR). In this paper, we evaluate the Value-at-Risk (V aR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF) in financial markets … proper risk valuation of options, the degree of persistence should be investigated and appropriate models that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636008
The accuracy of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric methods in predicting the one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk … and short trading positions. The risk management techniques are designed to capture the main characteristics of asset … accurate VaR forecasts. Especially for the high confidence levels, a risk manager must employ different volatility techniques …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910132