Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

for state-space models. Out-of-sample forecasts show that the forecast errors of the factor models are on average smaller … and the subspace factor model outperform the static factor model in most cases in terms of mean-squared forecast error …. However, the forecast performance depends crucially on the choice of appropriate information criteria for the auxiliary …

the subspace factor model rank highest in terms of forecast accuracy in most cases. However, neither of the dynamic factor … models can provide better forecasts than the static model over all forecast horizons and different specifications of the …

2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For … increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long … forecast horizon …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

we expect to be associated with the prevalence of the analyst walk-down forecast pattern. Based on a large sample of 50 … forecast bias involves various forces including a country's institutional infrastructure, and firm and analyst characteristics …