-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …

-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …, that combining the production side and the demand side projections substantially improves the forecast performance, in …

forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …

inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common …

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest … Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

The "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose" [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual macroeconomic forecast in … criticised. This study examines the JD’s growth and inflation forecasts from 1970 to 2007, including most of the contributions of … forecasts to influence the JD forecast? Results show that there is no strong evidence of bias or inefficiency of the institutes …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper … indices for growth and inflation forecasts. Finally, a forecasting exercise analyses the predictive power of sentiment indices … for GDP growth and inflation. The results suggest weak evidence, at best, for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …