The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...

This paper discusses various approaches to decompose economic time series into their trend and cyclical components. For over 30 years now, the Deutsche Bundesbank publishes trend-adjusted indicators in its Statistical Supplement 4 entitled Seasonally Adjusted Business Statisticsʺ which are...

The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...