Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles. The methodology uses the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and also Hilbert wavelet pairs in the setting of a...

Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments...

This paper focuses on the cross-dynamics of exchange rate expectations over different time-scales. We use over-the-counter currency options on the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar to extract expected probability density functions of future exchange rates, and...

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered, and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of...