to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be significantly … overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to …

risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as verified by a bootstrap approach. We present an alternative …

groups more than forecasts by laypeople; I observe a home bias in all subject groups, which can be mitigated by information … signals; all subject groups expect lower forecast errors for financial professionals than for laypeople, hence I also find …