Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters' narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into...

The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it...

We evaluate the economic value of business cycle forecasts for potential investors on financial markets as opposed to statistical measures of forecasts accuracy. Taking Germany as an example, and based on annual data ranging from 1990 to 2016 covering 16 institutions and 18 different forecasts,...