This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

The recovery of the German economy needs more time. Ongoing precautionary measures to protect against infection as well as the supply bottlenecks will slow down the catch-up process in the winter. Especially in those service sector that have been particularly affected by the pandemic the...