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The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295888
In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295906
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533201
The paper analyzes Information Technology (IT) governance disclosure on a sample of the major 20 EU banks (from Italy …, Germany, France and Spain) to observe if, how and where banks report on their IT governance issues. Since IT governance (like … banks' operational functioning; it is a key resource in developing and supporting banking services, enabling institutions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012012577
What impact do past experiences have on the expectation formation of banks? This article analyses the risk management … the likelihood of credit defaults and forced banks to implement new strategies of risk assessment. The Herstatt failure of … 1974 triggered a series of new regulations, partly based on initiatives of the banks themselves. After the sovereign debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436560
What impact do past experiences have on the expectation formation of banks? This article analyses the risk management … the likelihood of credit defaults and forced banks to implement new strategies of risk assessment. The Herstatt failure of … 1974 triggered a series of new regulations, partly based on initiatives of the banks themselves. After the sovereign debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459918
With this paper we seek to contribute to the literature on pension insurance systems. The financial literature tends to focus exclusively on the US pension insurance system. This is the first major empirical study to address the German occupational pension insurance (PSVaG) plan in Germany. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295914
Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable "infection model" can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295911
In this paper we stress-test credit portfolios of 28 German banks based on a Mertontype multi-factor credit risk model … drivers of the stress impact on banks' credit portfolios. Although the percentage of loans in the automobile sector is … relatively low for all banks in the sample, the expected loss conditional on the stress event increases substantially by 70 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298778
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467427