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important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781794
Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977747
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983873
We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003870630
The objectives of this paper are to study the impact of liberalisation on trade deficits and current accounts of developing countries. It is expected that trade liberalisation would promote economic growth from the supply side by leading to a more efficient use of resources, by encouraging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014070258
We empirically investigate the effect of net external debt positions on the size of medium-term current account balances. We utilize an approach where net external debt positions dampen the widening of the current account balances. In a simple accounting framework, we find supportive evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012712867
, a world interest shock, influences such key macroeconomic variables as output, investment, the current account, and the … world interest shock lowers overall economic welfare … considers a developing economy that faces an upward-sloping supply function of debt. It analyzes how a particular foreign shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014152175
We examine the dynamic impact of household borrowing on the trade balance using data from 33 developing countries and 36 developed countries over the 1980-2017 period. Our findings suggest that the impact of household borrowing on the trade balance is by and large negative, both in the short and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012534684
This paper studies current account reversals in industrial countries across different exchange rate regimes. There are two major findings which have important implications for industrial economies with external imbalances: first, triggers of current account reversals differ between exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082531
We study the joint behavior of external debt, international reserves, and the real interest rate based on a dynamic regime-switching small open economy model that incorporates the salient features of economic crises in emerging markets. Our model allows an assessment of the two well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825937