We introduce a return predictor related to the slope and curvature of the futures term structure: basis-momentum. Basis-momentum strongly outperforms benchmark characteristics in predicting commodity spot and term premiums in the time series and cross section. Exposure to basis-momentum is...

Maintaining a trend observed since the first Presidential declaration of a major disaster in 1953, federal disaster declarations are increasing at an increasing rate and the annual average federal expenditure on domestic disaster aid has grown at an annual average rate of two hundred fifty-five...

The main objective of this article is to calculate the price of weather derivatives for different African countries with payout depending on temperature. A new approach of computing degree day contracts is shown and gives another scale to the numerical relevance and practical implementation of...

The self-employed are among those facing the highest probability of strong income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments in many countries introduced support programs to support the self-employed, including the German federal government, which approved a €50bn emergency aid program...

The self-employed are among those facing the highest probability of strong income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments in many countries introduced support programs to support the self-employed, including the German federal government, which approved a €50bn emergency aid program...

Aid flows are included into the standard cross-country catch-up relation. Robustness of the result is tested by changing time periods and by adding extra variables. The main results are: Absolute convergence and absolute aid effectiveness are both rejected. While conditional convergence is...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity simultaneously. We also implement a new methodology that allows us to deal with...