Malone, Samuel W.; Gramacy, Robert B.; Horst, Enrique ter - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-23
To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and … exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model conditional on the carry and dollar factors dominate random walk forecasts on … ante BTGP forecasts deliver the highest out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns for the median currency, as well as for both …