Starting from Obaseki (1998), several authors have developed different models of Naira equilibrium real exchange rate in a bid to better understand its behavior, albeit without accounting for the possibility and effects of structural breaks in their models. This is counterintuitive, especially...

The study investigates how mis-allocation of Nigeria's foreign exchange among the consumer and capital goods and new materials between 1970 and 1983 contributed to the deep/worst business recession in the 1980s and 1990s. In recognition of the structural mal-adjustment problems faced by a debt...

Asset prices undergo long swings that revolve around benchmark levels. In currency markets, fluctuations involve real exchange rates that are highly persistent and that move in near-parallel fashion with nominal rates. The inability to explain these two regularities with one model has been...

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative quot;behavioralquot; model, which...

There are no established benchmarks for evaluating currency investment manager performance. Some analysts have suggested that known investing styles like momentum, purchasing power parity, and carry serve as benchmarks. Challenges for this approach include: there is no market portfolio; there...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and...

This paper constructs an early warning system for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to which...

In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data...

We employ a threshold vector error correction model approach to investigate the impact of China's exchange rate marketization reform in August 2015 on the linkage between renminbi (RMB) onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) exchange rates and the impact of post-reform policy interventions by the...