In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data...

This paper is an empirically based discussion of interactions between speculative behavior in the currency markets and aggregate fluctuations in the real economy. It builds on the recent theory of Imperfect Knowledge Economics in Frydman and Goldberg (2007) and combines this with the Structural...

There are no established benchmarks for evaluating currency investment manager performance. Some analysts have suggested that known investing styles like momentum, purchasing power parity, and carry serve as benchmarks. Challenges for this approach include: there is no market portfolio; there...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and...

Starting from Obaseki (1998), several authors have developed different models of Naira equilibrium real exchange rate in a bid to better understand its behavior, albeit without accounting for the possibility and effects of structural breaks in their models. This is counterintuitive, especially...

Asset prices undergo long swings that revolve around benchmark levels. In currency markets, fluctuations involve real exchange rates that are highly persistent and that move in near-parallel fashion with nominal rates. The inability to explain these two regularities with one model has been...

We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the financial sector and the real economy interact this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...