Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether...

We evaluate the directional accuracy of Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indices in predicting the direction of the US economy direction; to do so, we make use of a method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009). By illustrating an application of the new market-timing test and extending...