In this paper I show that information about fundamentals of the aggregate economy derived from closely held firms help predict stock returns. I construct a new economy-wide dividend price ratio that takes into account dividends and market capitalization of both listed (public) and non-listed...

We examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on firms' decisions to suspend dividends and estimate a model that quantifies the effect of suspensions on growth in aggregate dividends. Our estimates show that dividend suspensions had a large impact on expected future dividend growth and also...