We present an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock that drives the movements of...

Dynamical systems -- Deterministic linear systems -- Deterministic nonlinear systems -- Stochastic difference equations -- Markov processes -- Ergodic theory and stationary processes -- Dynamic optimization -- Markov decision process model -- Finite-horizon dynamic programming --...

We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the comovements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: we introduce...