Doz, Catherine; Petronevich, Anna - Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 … - 2015
The official institutions (NBER, OECD, CEPR and others) provide business cycle chronology with a lag from 3 months up to several years. Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) allows to produce the turning points more timely. The Kalman filter estimates of the model can be obtained in one...