This paper shows how one can compute option prices from a Bayesian inference view point, using a GARCH model for the dynamics of the the volatility of the underlying asset. The proposed evaluation of an option is the predictive expectation of its payoff function. The predictive distribution of...

An efficient portfolio maximizes the expected utility of future wealth. This paper presents an analysis of the efficiency frontier, formed by a set of efficient portfolios corresponding to a parameterized class of utility functions. First we discuss the estimation of Tan efficient portfolio and...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far...

Empirical tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure hage almost without exception been tests of the time-series properties of interest rates. However, the expectations hypothesis has implications not just for the yield movement of a single pair of bond maturities over a number...

In the empirical analysis of financial time series, multivariate GARCH models have been used in various forms. In most cases it is not well understood how the use of a restricted model has to be paid with loss of valuable information. We investigate the structural implications of two alternative...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...