This paper formalizes the link among electoral uncertainty, fiscal policy and economic growth. The setup is a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal growth and fiscal policy, in which fiscal policy is endogenized through a game between two political parties that can alternate in power.

This paper examines whether incumbent national governments of the member states of the European Union have manipulated the fiscal policy instruments at their disposal in order to create national political business cycles, opportunistic or partisan, in the 1970-98 period.

The paper examines wheter the tax changes observed in eleven countries of the European Union during the 1965-1996 period could be attibuted to intended pre-election period actions of incumbent governments seeking their reelection or to traditional stabilizing fiscal policies.