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This paper constructs coincident indices of Australian economic activity using techniques for estimating approximate factor models with many series, using data that begin in the early 1960s. The resulting monthly and quarterly indices both provide plausible measures of the Australian business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005398651
This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295769
This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295822
We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298758
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325750
Following Bai (2004) and Bai and Ng (2004) we estimate a common factor representation of a panel of output series for India, disaggregated by 15 states and 14 broad industry groups. We find that a single common V-Factor accounts for a large part of the significant shift in the cross-sectional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274009
The authors replicate and extend the Monte Carlo experiment presented in Doz et al. (2012) on alternative (time-domain based) methods for extracting dynamic factors from large datasets; they employ open source software and consider a larger number of replications and a wider set of scenarios....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174691
In this paper, the authors comment on the Monte Carlo results of the paper by Lucchetti and Veneti (A replication of "A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models" (Review of Economics and Statistics), 2020)) that studies and compares the performance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012211628