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Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong?
Postel-Vinay, Natacha - 2020
The US Great Depression was preceded by almost a decade of credit growth. This review paper suggests that the 1920s credit boom went through two phases: one, up to around 1927, when credit grew in concert with money; another one, from around 1928 to 1929, when credit grew faster than money....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848726
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Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework
Thiem, Christopher - 2017
volatility as well as the U.S. economy. We find that - even after accounting for these factors - oil price uncertainty still has … confirms these results. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge …Dieser Beitrag untersucht den Einfluss von Ölpreisunsicherheit auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität der USA mit Hilfe eines VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
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Business History > Piketty
Wright, Robert E. - 2015
Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century has attracted more attention than it perhaps deserves given that its main empirical claim, that wealth inequality is bound to occur in "capitalist" economies because the rate of return r is greater than the rate of economic growth g (r g), is not rigorously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137599
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Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression
Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020
I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992
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Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk
Yao, Yudong; Wang, Yan - 2005
Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124889
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Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area
Brill, Maximilian; Nautz, Dieter; Sieckmann, Lea - 2019 - This version: June 25, 2019
We introduce a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area that accounts for the heterogeneity across member countries both, in terms of interest rates and the decomposition of monetary assets. In most of the euro area countries, the difference between the growth rates of the country-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023395
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Short-Term GDP Forecasting with a Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility
Marcellino, Massimiliano Giuseppe - 2014
In this paper we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model featuring stochastic shifts in the volatility of both … volatility contributes to an improvement in density forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064512
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Conditional growth volatility and sectoral comovement in U.S. industrial production, 1828-1915
Freire, Gustavo; Resende, Marcelo - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 59 (2020) 6, pp. 3063-3084
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012504357
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Volatility and growth : governments are key
Jetter, Michael - 2013
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
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National and supranational business cycles (1960 - 2000) : a multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates
Süssmuth, Bernd - 2002
This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the ….The central findings are summarized with regard to (i) national product share, contribution-to-variance and volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408998