In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … accuracy, and that it has had a strong and stable long-run link to inflation over the last decades. A particularly promising …

predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental … inflation, if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity. …

revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …