Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

We examine the impact of two important non-tariff measures presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export to the European Union (EU). As a novelty to the literature, we analyse the impacts of EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non-tariff measure...

The primary objective of this paper is to propose two nonlinear extensions for macroeconomic forecasting using large datasets. First, we propose an alternative technique for factor estimation, i.e., kernel principal component analysis, which allows the factors to have a nonlinear relationship to...

Recently, Mastromarco, Serlenga and Shin (2010) propose a two-step approach to examine dynamic transmission mechanism under which globalization factors foster technology efficiency. In this paper, we extend the MSS model by combining panel threshold regression technique advanced by Hansen...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

Scholarship on the relationships between key macroeconomic variables and defense investment is divided on both the appropriate level of aggregation for such analysis, and the direction of causality between macroeconomic variables and defense investment. Both NATO and the EU, through the European...

Both theorists and practitioners continue to show interest in transatlantic burden-sharing. International security and political economy scholarship offers plausible explanations for transatlantic imbalances in military expenditures. However, NATO Allies and EU Member States have pledged to one...

Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price...

This paper employs a logistic model to measure the effect of socioeconomic and individual characteristics on the length of time an individual remains in good health. It employs an objective measure of physical health, the Physical and Mental Health Problems, Illnesses and Disabilities (PMID)...

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1970-2016. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-section dependence show that the Government debt series is stationary, indicating that the solvency condition would...