We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context,...

In many countries, wage changes tend to be clustered in the beginning of the year, with wages being set for fixed durations of typically one year. This has been, in particular, documented in recent years for European countries using microeconomic data. Motivated by this evidence we build a model...

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC)...

This study evaluates oil price forecasts based on their economic significance for macroeconomic predictions. More specifically, we first use the current state-of-the-art frameworks to forecast monthly oil prices and subsequently we use these forecasts, as oil price assumptions, to predict...

The COVID-19 crisis has led to substantial reductions in earnings. We propose a new measure of financial vulnerability, computable through survey data, to determine whether households can withstand a certain income shock for a defined period of time. Using data from the ECB Household Finance and...

In this short paper we are developing an empirical model that allows us to assess the economic impact of Brexit nearly in real-time. For this we use the electricity demand in England and Wales as a proxy of economic activity. We control for a large variety of external influencing factors like...

We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches to forecasting using dynamic factor models. The first approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual indicators before estimating the dynamic factor model, while the alternative uses the non-seasonally adjusted data...

In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB's New Multi-Country Model are used to understand plausible...

The results in this paper show that current European benchmark yields can be explained, with a high degree of accuracy, by using an affine term structure (ATS) model with the following four state variables: (i) the EU unemployment rate, (ii) the EU production price index, (iii) the ECB monetary...

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...