This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS) predominantly from Central and Eastern Europe. In the wake of accession the number of workers migrating to...

The study presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12 countries and the European Union. The principal aim of this effort is to provide ideas, lessons and benchmarks for similar forecasting exercises in...

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the...

Early, the convergence theory was suggestively expressed in the Solow model. This can be shown in line with the fact that while economic development is advancing (expressed by the income per capita growth), on long run there is a general convergence process among countries. Generally, empirical...

Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

This paper shall give an overview of the implications to the sectoral balances stemming from the implementation of the Fiscal Compact in the Euro area in 2013. Since there is noew a more or less strict limit to deficit spending - absent from cyclical factors - some other sector has to make up...