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The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG

Amstad, Marlene; Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W. - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402079

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge : UIG

Amstad, Marlene; Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W. - 2014

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404156

The ECB's tracker : nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB

Marozzi, Armando - 2021

This paper proposes an econometric framework for nowcasting the monetary policy stance and decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) exploiting the ow of conventional and textual data that become available between two consecutive press conferences. Decompositions of the updated nowcasts into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012648896

Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data

Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - 2015

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536

Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data

Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - 2015

The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021