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This paper employs a comprehensive set of “state-of-the-art” unit root tests, including the autoregressive neural network (ARNN) unit root test (Yaya et al. 2021; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics), to investigate unemployment hysteresis in five European countries: France, Italy, the...
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This paper examines persistence, structural breaks and non-linearities in the case of five European stock market indices, namely the FTSE100 (UK), DAX30 (Germany), CAC40 (France), IBEX35 (Spain) and FTSE MIB40 (Italy), using fractional integration methods. The empirical results provide no...
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price volatility, and compares their forecasting performance to the standard GARCH, fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH …) and the two-state Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models via three loss functions (the mean squared error, the mean … criteria and forecast horizons, while MS-GARCH mostly comes out as the least successful model. Applying various VaR backtesting …
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This letter extends research reported in Narayan and Smyth (2005) by employing multiple trend break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for 15 European stock market indices. The results provide strong support for the view that stock prices are characterized by a random walk
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