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Rockets and feathers meet Joseph : reinvestigating the oil-gasoline asymmetry on the international markets
Kristoufek, Ladislav; Lunackova, Petra - 2015
We reinvestigate the "rockets and feathers" effect between retail gasoline and crude oil prices in a new framework of … complicated time series characteristics. On the dataset of seven national gasoline prices, we find no statistically significant … asymmetry. The proposed methodology is not limited to the gasoline and crude oil case but it can be utilized for any asymmetric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471708
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Rockets and feathers meet Joseph : reinvestigating the oil-gasoline asymmetry on the international markets
Kristoufek, Ladislav; Lunackova, Petra - In: Energy economics 49 (2015), pp. 1-8
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011536600
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The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections : a state dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544414
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The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections : a state dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508654
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The bias of the ECB inflation projections : a State-dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2024
We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532443
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European gasoline markets : price transmission asymmetries in mean and variance
Torrado, María; Escribano, Álvaro - In: Applied economics 52 (2020) 42, pp. 4621-4638
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012298654
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Short-term Forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic using Google Trends Data : Evidence from 158 Countries
Fantazzini, Dean - 2020
The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a dataset of 158 countries. The analysis includes the computations of lag correlations between confirmed cases and Google data, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826063
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The Spillover Effects Following Brexit Announcements
Gifuni, Luigi - 2022
This work quantifies the financial and macroeconomic effects of the most significant Brexit events from 23 June 2016 up to 31 December 2019 for fifteen economies. The study uses high-frequency data and shows that following the referendum outcome, overall the 10-year government bond yield of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289046
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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944
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Modelling Inflation in the Euro Area
Jansen, Eilev S. - 2021
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319393