breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

results suggest that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is among the best-performing indicators to forecast real GDP growth … improves forecast accuracy and can be an effective way to mitigate the volatility associated with monthly indicators. Overall …

specifically, we first use the current state-of-the-art frameworks to forecast monthly oil prices and subsequently we use these …