In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse … both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are … forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and … distribution. Overall, the quantile regression approach describes the distribution of inflation better than a benchmark univariate … trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility, which is known to perform very well in forecasting inflation. In an out …

use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent … measures of underlying inflation built from more traditional methods. The power to forecast headline inflation over horizons of …

-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the … indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as …