This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics …%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to … the twin puzzle of missing disinflation and missing inflation in the era after the Great Recession. Specifically, without …

movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate rules of thumb mask substantial heterogeneities across countries … deviations of inflation from target, including those relating to exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, under the effective lower … inflation. …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was … inflation and economic activity in all the countries. All in all, our analysis confirms the appropriateness of the ECB asset …Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below …

energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB's ability to affect … this policy strategy could have largely prevented the post-pandemic inflation episode. …

estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine effects on its 12 main sub-indices and further sub-categories of … food price inflation. This allows us to disentangle differences in the direction and strength of price effects across … consumption categories. Our results suggest significant positive effects of natural disasters on overall headline inflation, with …

This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising energy prices. By using a high … global energy prices (in dollars). Our counterfactual analysis demonstrates that both effects are present, but the latter …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …