In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt...

Europe’s financial landscape has substantial institutional variety. This reflects different societal responses to (or preferences with regard to) trade-offs. For monetary policy, it implies a challenging environment, particularly in times of financial crises. Using a non-linear VAR-model we...

The study analyses the most important pillars of institutional framework for macro-prudential policy at the level of the member states of the European Union. The study briefly describe the current – gradually and deliberately coordinated – process of substantive unification process of the...

This paper analyses the leading characteristics of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) with respect to stock market returns for 11 New EU Member States. It proposes novel CCI weights by minimizing mean squared errors from regression forecasting equations, using CCI lags as regressors. With...

I perform textual analysis on high frequency (intraday) news articles. Selected articles are related to Euro-zone periphery crisis-affected countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain). News pessimism affects stock returns negatively and volatility positively. Media pessimism does not...

This paper evaluates the effect of all European economic news releases to the US financial markets, for the main crisis period from June 2007 up to October 2011. Evaluation concerns Sharpe ratios, as well as magnitude and frequency of volatility jumps for the periods before and after a news...

As a response to multiple financial shocks, international standards have disappointed. Consensus-seeking has stifled innovation, perpetuating outdated regulatory concepts at a time of rapid market change. Different forces are at work now. Markets are complex and idiosyncratic; they may not be...

Should monetary policy lean against financial stability risks? This has been a subject of fierce debate over the last decades. We contribute to the debate about "leaning against the wind" (LAW) along three lines. First, we evaluate the cost and benefits of LAW using the Svensson (2017) framework...

In 2007 the world faced one of the biggest financial crises ever. It was the third important financial crisis in the last 12 years. Spillovers to the real economy and moral hazard behaviour of carpetbaggers resulted in enormous pressure on worldwide political institutions to approve a more...

In this paper we model and estimate ex ante safety-net benefits at a sample of large banks in US and Europe during 2003-2008. Our results suggest that difficult-to-fail and unwind (DFU) banks enjoyed substantially higher ex ante benefits than other institutions. Safety-net benefits prove...