Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

Prices may differ between regional markets if transport capacities are limited. We develop a new approach to determine to which extent such differences stem from limited participation in cross-border trader rather than from bottlenecks. We derive a theoretical integration benchmark for the...

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning...

We derive risk-neutral option price formulas for plain-vanilla and exotic electricity futures derivatives on the basis of diverse arithmetic multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spot price models admitting seasonality. In these setups, we take additional forward-looking knowledge on future price...

We study modification properties of stochastic processes under different probability measures in an initially enlarged filtration setup. For this purpose, we consider several pure-jump Lévy processes under two equivalent probability measures and derive the associated martingale compensators...

Monetary policy has implicit redistribution effects for households when households are different. This changes the aggregate consumption response to interest rate changes. This paper is the first to estimate the magnitude of redistributionary channels of monetary policy in the euro area. When...

Prices may differ between regional markets if transport capacities are limited. We develop a new approach to determine to which extent such differences stem from limited participation in cross-border trader, i.e. lack of integration, rather than from bottlenecks. This approach considers both...