Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...

Probabilistic job loss expectations elicited in the Consumer Expectations Survey have predictive power for future job loss. We find that an unexpected job loss leads to a negative consumption response, while this effect is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations - consistent with...

Prices may differ between regional markets if transport capacities are limited. We develop a new approach to determine to which extent such differences stem from limited participation in cross-border trader rather than from bottlenecks. We derive a theoretical integration benchmark for the...

We study modification properties of stochastic processes under different probability measures in an initially enlarged filtration setup. For this purpose, we consider several pure-jump Lévy processes under two equivalent probability measures and derive the associated martingale compensators...

Central banks make public the results of open market operations (OMOs), which they use to adjust the liquidity available to the financial system to maintain the short-term borrowing rate in the range compatible with achieving their monetary policy objectives. This paper shows that such...

We provide solution formulas for (linear and non-linear) jump-diffusion backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) under diverse enlarged filtration approaches. We also derive a comparison theorem for BSDEs in an enlarged filtration framework and present several applications of our...

We derive risk-neutral option price formulas for plain-vanilla and exotic electricity futures derivatives on the basis of diverse arithmetic multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spot price models admitting seasonality. In these setups, we take additional forward-looking knowledge on future price...