The authors introduce a new methodology for determining the relative importance of fiscal and monetary policy to promote growth and stabilize inflation. They apply this methodology to a panel of data that spans 66 years and 17 countries. Their analysis shows that, on average, monetary policy is...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

Neben der Einleitung ist die Dissertation in zwei Teile aufgeteilt. In Teil I wird die Annahme eines Investors mit μ-σ Präferenz getroffen. Das erste Kapitel stellt ein Multi-Rating ATSM unter Arbitragefreiheit mit dem klaren Fokus auf Zinsstrukturkurvenmodelle für Unternehmensanleihen vor....