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We propose an arbitrage-free shadow-rate term structure model to analyze the euro-area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields turned negative at various maturities. In the model the 'shadow rate' can reach any positive or negative level, while the actual one-month rate cannot fall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532627
We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963943
We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011635307
We propose an arbitrage-free shadow-rate term structure model to analyze the euro-area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields turned negative at various maturities. In the model the 'shadow rate' can reach any positive or negative level, while the actual one-month rate cannot fall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981894
We develop an econometric methodology for the study of the yield curve and its interactions with measures of non-standard monetary policy during possibly turbulent times. The yield curve is modeled by the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model while the monetary policy measurements are modeled as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362975
. To evaluate ex-ante forecasting performance for particular rates, different forecast features such as mean squared errors …-ante forecasting ; EURIBOR swap rates ; term structure ; directional accuracy ; big hit ability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636128
forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither … specifications. -- Model selection ; principal components ; factor analysis ; exante forecasting ; EURIBOR swap term structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770821
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403330
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172917